← Back to weekly hub

Weekly Dispatch

Shoebox Street.

Newsletter Apr 16: A K-Shaped Pre-Sale Market — Signals from 17 REDMA Filings

I read 17 REDMA filings this month. Here’s what financing, phasing, and execution risk are revealing.

Week ending April 16, 2026 — I read 17 REDMA filings. Here’s what’s actually changing beneath the surface of BC real estate projects.

“I track every project — and tell you what changed.”

Over the past month (ending mid-April), I read 17 REDMA disclosure filings across BC.

Not listings. Not marketing decks.
The actual legal documents developers file.

What stood out isn’t any single project.

It’s a shift in how projects are being structured.

Why this matters:
Buyers, lenders, and brokers are no longer just evaluating price and location.
They are implicitly taking on financing and execution risk.


Note: This analysis is based on publicly available REDMA disclosure filings. Examples are used to illustrate common structures across projects.


🚨 The market looks slow on the surface. Underneath, it’s splitting into a K-shape.

There are now two very different types of projects in the market:

1. Projects that are ready to build

2. Projects at different stages of financing and execution readiness

The difference comes down to one thing:

Construction financing — the loan that actually funds the build


🟢 Pattern: Some projects are already “real”

These projects either:

That means:

You can see this structure in projects like SALTON in Surrey, where construction financing is already secured through a major bank.


🔴 Pattern: Many projects are still conditional

A large portion of new filings fall into a different category.

They are actively marketing units, but still waiting for:

In some cases:

buyers commit early, but the project itself is still waiting for key conditions to be met

For example, a multi-phase development on Vancouver Island requires both financing and a minimum level of presales before it can proceed.

👉 In plain English:


🧩 Phasing Is Doing More Work Than People Realize

Another strong pattern:

Projects are increasingly built in phases (Phase 1, 2, 3…)

This sounds normal.

But the key detail is:

later phases are often optional, not guaranteed


🟡 Pattern: Early buyers depend on later phases

In many projects:

And importantly:

Example:

A large townhouse community in Greater Victoria is planned across more than 10 phases, with certain amenities only delivered in later stages.

You can see this structure in projects like one in the Royal Bay area, where development is spread across multiple phases.

👉 What this means:


💰 Deposit Structures Are Quietly Changing

A third pattern is emerging around deposits.

A deposit is the upfront money a buyer pays to secure a unit.


🟡 Pattern: Lower deposits, longer commitments

Several projects now use:

This shifts risk in subtle ways:

Example:

A West Side Vancouver project requires only a small upfront deposit, while allowing completion timelines that extend several years.

This structure appears in projects like Laburnum Residences, which combines a low initial deposit with a long outside completion window.

👉 In practice:


🧠 Not All “No-Lender” Projects Are the Same

Another interesting pattern:

Some projects do not disclose a traditional construction lender at the time of filing.


🟡 Pattern: Developer-funded or flexible financing

In these cases:

This creates a different dynamic:

Example:

A small Vancouver Island townhouse project is being advanced without a disclosed institutional construction loan, relying on developer-led funding.

This structure can be seen in projects like Marina View Estates (Phase 1).

👉 This doesn’t automatically mean higher risk.

But it does mean:


🧱 At the Other Extreme: No Construction Risk

Not every project this week involved construction uncertainty.


🟢 Pattern: Completed assets behave differently

Some filings relate to already-built properties.

In these cases:

But the risk shifts to:

Example:

A downtown Vancouver offering involves completed residential units in an existing building, where the focus is no longer delivery, but ongoing operations.

This is the case for projects like L’Hermitage.

👉 The key idea:

Risk doesn’t disappear.
It just changes form.


🧠 What This Means

If you’re buying

You’re not just choosing:

You’re also choosing:


If you’re in the industry

The conversation is shifting.

From:

“Is this a good project?”

To:

“How real is this project today?”


If you’re lending or investing

The shift is subtle but important:

risk is moving from credit risk → execution risk

Less about:

More about:


🔍 What I’m Watching Next

Across all filings, the most important signals are not marketing updates.

They are:

These show up as disclosure amendments.

That’s where the real changes happen.


📩 Final Thought

Most people read listings.

Very few read disclosures.

That’s where the real story is.


If you find this useful, I publish a weekly breakdown of new filings:

👉 projectalpha1.substack.com